Tuesday, January 5, 2010

New Fronts with the Enemy?

My observation is that we may be seeing new fronts in our battle with those who seek us harm. A couple of fronts are known, and in fact (in my opinion) a natural development of the sleeper cell model favored by the enemy:
  • American-based / "home grown" terrorists sympathetic to Al Qaeda
  • The move towards Yemen, which similar to Somalia provides an excellent opportunity for Al Qaeda to regroup...more about Yemen another time
In addition however there could be additional fronts developing. I hope I'm wrong! And I am uncertain about the facts upon which this analysis is based (media reports) - but here goes:

Intel manipulation - the tragic killing of 7 CIA operatives by an allegedly "turned" double agent. Intel is in my opinion absolutely fundamental to winning our battle - the basis of our strategy, our military operations whether traditional or SOF (special operations forces) counterinsurgency, and basically anything we do etc. Intelligence must be extremely challenging anyway, as one of my simplifying rules about the Middle East is that it generally goes back to tribes (see a previous post); if true then this makes it quite challenging to infiltrate the enemy. However this instance seems to go several steps beyond - not only a very painful loss for the families on a personal level, and for America as a tough blow in our battle - but these were apparently some very heavy hitters, their loss will be felt.

Has the enemy taken intel to a new front?

Socially acceptable branding - "Jihad" vs. "Terrorist" - the 5 young "Americans" (all of Middle East origin) arrested in Pakistan who allegedly proclaimed they had nothing to do with Al Qaeda or any terrorist organizations, but rather rallied around "Jihad" to support Muslims against occupiers. In Pakistan, and across most of the Middle East, this gets a favorable reception...

Has the enemy opened a new front to win hearts and minds?


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