Recent Observations on the Middle East

I am observing what might be some new trends in the Middle East (or perhaps are disjointed, one-or-two-off occurrences). Two of these trends could spell dangerous new directions, and one is familiar and refreshing - in context - although irritating.

By the way every time I think about Somalia - I feel very emotional and pay tribute to our lionhearted Ranger and Delta brothers who paid the ultimate price. What a f'd up confluence of preventable circumstances that resulted in needless tragedy. (I don't like to commercialize something so special but just so you folks can share my perspective this was memorialized in the book and movie "Blackhawk Down"...)

Somalia

• Trend - communal idealogical / socio-religious groupings vs. clan / tribal affiliations - in other words societally organizing along belief lines rather than communal lines - I can't think of any other examples of this happening in any mainstream communities
  
• Story - Islamic groups taking arms against each other in this lawless state - example is moderate "Sufis" (mystics) vs. extremist "Shabbab" ("youth")
  
• Background - from my personal observations the Middle East and Africa revolve around tribal affiliations and loyalties. It is well known that to solve an issue in this theater requires going to the local leader. I hear many Westerners compare Shia vs. Sunni, or Jordanian vs. Saudi, as if this context in isolation explains cultural, religious and philosophical outlook. Of course religious sect and nationality help provide a context. However in my opinion historically the way things happen - the real drivers of society and the keys to resolving conflict - comes down to the tribal level. (Like we say in the US, "all politics are local".) Just for the sake of clarity, my observations are primarily formed having studied Iraqi society prior to Desert Storm and then more significantly having lived in Egypt for a few years, doing business and traveling throughout the Middle East and Africa
• Implications - could this be the start of a new trend? What would happen if this spread to the biggest hotspot in the world (in my opinion) - Pakistan? Will the US be able to get our mojo back and "win hearts and minds" behind our ideals, which the world respects, loves and aspires to? In other words could we see the enabling and empowering of more "Sufis" to provide a positive alternative to "Shabbab"?
  

Egypt

• Trend - foreigners conspiring on Egyptian soil to destabilize the government and threaten public security and welfare
• Story I - first we had what I felt was a very surprising admission from Hezbollah leader Nasrallah that indeed several Hezbollah operatives were on sovereign Egyptian soil. In my opinion this is a major story. I believe it compromises Hezbollah's credibility in its claim that it's a Lebanese political party. Further - even more surprising - was Nasrallah's admission of Iranian complicity in the matter! Iran and Egypt - in fact the entire Arab world - have a very shaky relationship. (One massive sticky point in the two countries' relations is the fact that Iran refuses to change a street named after the killer of the great President Anwar Sadat. As an aside, I went to Iran with an Egyptian citizen. I was treated royally and departed and arrived and cleared with the greatest of ease - while my Egyptian colleague was detained and questioned intensely. Of course that could also be due to his personality, for those of you who know "the Panda" :).)
• Story II - it appears that several foreigners were behind the recent bombings at the "Khan el Khalili" market.
  
• Background - historically Egypt is a very peaceful place and Egyptians are unbelievably hospitable people. While in my opinion what I call "the socio-religious pendulum" is swinging far to the right - and some of the extremist idealogy of the region springs from Egypt (think Muslim Brotherhood and Ayman Zawahiri, both born and bred in Egypt) - there is not a background of Egyptian violence committed against Egyptians.
  
• Implications - what will Egyptians reaction be? In keeping with the above story in Somalia - what will society choose (although there is not too much of a free choice these days regardless)? What does this mean for Iran's positioning across the region? Hezbollah's?
  

Iraq

• Trend - massive outcry over corruption in government - change the names and place and it could be New Jersey, London, etc. or virtually any other democracy
• Story - investigations on corruption across government - even two of Prime Minister Al-Maliki's brothers are indicted
  
• Background - elections are about 9 months away, and the US is committed to pulling out shortly
• Implications - am I reading this wrong or is this not politics as usual? I feel empathy for the citizens and non-corrupt government members - but in the "big picture" from several thousand miles away I am encouraged as I interpret it as a normal progression on the path to democracy and self-rule

Thoughts for the day...